Another scenario is, the North loses the Civil War, doesn't buy Alaska, the Russians keep it, British influence in Hawaii grows, the British want to side with Russia's side in various European disputes, so in return for other favors, the British let Russia get more influence in Hawaii and other Pacific Islands so the British can concentrate on other, more profitable holdings. Russia also gets increased influence in other parts of the N. Pacific, and W. Pacific, including maybe Japan, the Phillippines, Okinawa...