Salvage post Soviet Russian naval & airforces
- Thread starter Monk78
- Start date
Band in China
Banned
By cutting them down to levels necessary for Russia's strategic aims. Russia isn't the United States, it simply can't gather a coalition and conduct something on the level of Desert Storm nor does it have to. Russia uses its military for prestige and to exert influence in the "near aboard" of the former Warsaw Pact. It doesn't need an expeditionary naval force nor can it afford one.
Navy: A dozen or so Kilo subs for deterrent value-they were by then reliable, some icebreakers, and some costal guard ships. Everything else goes.
Airforce: don't trade for TU-160s for debt reduction, the point is to cut the force as there's nothing more expensive than a second-best air force. Quite frankly it amazes me that large scale reductions took place in 1998-nearly a decade after the USSR went to hell, ape China and cut down on manpower and equipment now to invest in the future-no one is going to invade a nuclear power.
Ape France, find foreign partners to help offset the cost of development. There's still decent niches for someone who wants rugged and cheap aircraft or who isn't on great terms/can't rely on the US (Vietnam, Libya, etc...) and a lot of Warsaw Pact equipment out there that needs modernization and parts.
It maybe a bitter pill to swallow but tech transfers and licensing aerospace tech with the Chinese who are looking to develop their own indigenous capacity and modernize is a definite partner to consider. Actually give the pilots training time and participate in expeditionary war, one undervalued aspect of the air force is the institutional training and experience of the pilots as the VVS is painfully and impotently discovering in Ukraine.
As France shows, 4th gen is just fine unless you're up against the USAF, and if you are surrender or fight a guerilla war. The Russians can't beat NATO stop trying to do so at incredible expense-all Russia got IOTL is a few handcrafted prototypes with no practical use. Modernize or develop a mass-produced 4th gen aircraft for use and export.
Any they can. They were desperate for any funding, fighter pilots were offering tourists flights to get flying time.
Go hard on corruption, make sure there is consistent and hard punishments for corruption-it'll be unpopular, it'll be difficult, it may kill whomever is in charge, but it will pay off.
Consolidate all their design bureaus and manufacturing companies, they are no longer supported by a war-economy nor can they easily compete with the likes of America or France. Don't squeeze them too hard on pricing, it leads to chronic underinvestment and talent flight.
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Absolutely not. Russia's nuclear deterrence is its best card and losing the boomers scuppers the deterrence value entirely. That in turn means retaining as many SSNs as they can afford, SSNs being the best defense for those boomers.
I mean, this is mostly what they actually did. The Su-35S and Su-30SM wouldn't exist if it weren't for India paying for development of the Su-30MKI. And IMO tech transfers and licensed production doesn't help the biggest problem the Russian aviation industry faced in the 1990s and 2000s: they weren't building anything. This led to severe industrial decay.
And large scale reductions did occur shortly after the fall of the USSR - by 1996 the combat strength of the Russian Air Force, as compared to the Soviet-era VVS, declined by half as older MiG-23, MiG-25, MiG-27, Su-15, and Su-17 aircraft were retired. I don't think 1998 is any sort of real pivot point in terms of Russian air force numbers - by 2001 that combat strength was down to 2000 from 2500 in 1996, and has continued to decline ever since. What was going on in the late 90s was just a natural rate of attrition to retirement:
Ultimately, the 90s are just such a hell of budget pressures that it's hard to find anything to prevent severe decay in all sectors of the air force, from development to training. The one thing I can think of that might actually help is cancelling the Soviet-era fifth-gen programs immediately and plowing what little development money was spent on them before cancellation into the Su-34. They need that plane in production ASAP, just from an industrial perspective.
Realize that global power projection is done for the foreseeable future, so scrap or sell everything bigger than a destroyer. Keep the minimum number of ballistic submarines to maintain the nuclear triad necessary for great power status.
Russia doesn't need a blue water navy. It needs the SSBN's, SSN's, SSK's, and what surface blue water is the old fashioned commerce raiders for offensive use. They need the nuclear powered ice breakers for use in the arctic and have some civilian versions that you can lease/use for own purposes in the arctic and antarctic areas. Build what is needed for export like missile boats, minesweepers, minelayers, and other type for hard currency. Work out ASW for your own purposes to keep the Western powers having to work hard to counter your subs and ships and protect their assets. Invest in Naval Aviation with both manned and unmanned aircraft. This includes looking at the CV killers and other type of long range missiles, air launched, sub, surface, and land launched and both rocket and air breathing engines. You still need an amphibious capability if only to have something you can sell overseas to other countries. Look at how many countries have 1 or 2 LST or LST just for having something neat to have.
A subject that is close to heart.
My absolute minimum that should have been done:
Somehow get the Varyag, Lobov, and the new bombers (Tu-160, 95MS, 22M3), and preferably the Il-78 tankers from Ukraine. By hook and by crook, doesn't matter how, threaten the, bribe them, cheat them, anything goes to get those back.
Preferably keep the 2 newer Kievs and preferably convert them to CTOL, if not, sell the first 3 to China on the condition that they will order say 50 MiG-29Ks from Mikoyan, and Baku to India as OTL.
By hook and by crook, do everything to keep the new sub programs for Yasens and Boreys going at an acceptable speed through the 1990s and 2000s. Should have build twice as many by now. The same applies to a few unfinished subs and unfinished or greatly delayed small surface combatants, like the Pr.11661, Pr.11540, Pr.12441 etc. Keep as many of the modern warships operational or at least reasonably well preserved rather than let them rot, especially Kirovs, Slavas, DDGs, Typhoons, Oscars, Akulas etc. and slowly but surely modernize them.
If they could somehow finish/get Ulyanovsk as well, that would be frigging awesome.
For the air force, the new priorities were Su-35(27M) and Su-34, if nothing else do everything possible to get a regiment or two of each in the 1990s and 2000s, to keep the industry going. Order some extra Su-33s for the Varyag. Also, piggyback on the export models Su-30MK and Su-30MKI and build some for VVS as well. Most of this actually happend in OTL, but 10 years too late. It needs to happen from the start of the 2000s. In an ideal world, the MiG-29M, MiG-31M and Yak-41 should have been built too, but perhaps this would be too much. On the other hand in the 2010s there was serious talk of restating MiG-31 production, so perhaps MiG-31M production should be started even in relatively small numbers just to have the production line available in the 2010s.
Start the MiG-29SMT and MiG-31BM modernization programs in the early 2000s, and for these and other modern/modernized planes such as Su-27SM (of which more should be upgraded), buy new R-77, R-37 and R-74 missiles.
Keep the Tu-160 production going, even at a slow rate, again to keep the production line ticking over and available in the 2010s.
And even if not series produced, give a bit of cash to Mikoyan to fly the MFI by say 1996, at least aviation buffs would get to see it flying at some MAKS airshows.
Essentially all this is to bridge the gap between the late 1990s and late 2000s when almost no new aircraft were bought and only a handful were modernized. Just having the industry build and modernize say 50 aircraft every year would keep it ticking over and relatively healthy. Then we get to the start of the OTL rejuvenation program, which ITTL should also be somewhat increased and hover at not less than 100 new and modernized aircraft every year, including some love for Mikoyan, get some new MiG-29Ms as well as new MiG-31Ms a proposed above.
Sell everything to everyone with cash! Be it China, Iran or whoever else, everything goes including Tu-22Ms for China, MiG-31 for Iran etc.
All this though requires at a minimum no Yeltsin drunkard corrupt that destroyed the economy and military, either never getting in charge or preferably ran over by a tank or something in 1993. Or perhaps a surviving USSR in the form proposed in 1991. Or perhaps the hardline communist coup succeeds in 1991. Whichever POD the OP prefers.
My absolute minimum that should have been done:
Somehow get the Varyag, Lobov, and the new bombers (Tu-160, 95MS, 22M3), and preferably the Il-78 tankers from Ukraine. By hook and by crook, doesn't matter how, threaten the, bribe them, cheat them, anything goes to get those back.
Preferably keep the 2 newer Kievs and preferably convert them to CTOL, if not, sell the first 3 to China on the condition that they will order say 50 MiG-29Ks from Mikoyan, and Baku to India as OTL.
By hook and by crook, do everything to keep the new sub programs for Yasens and Boreys going at an acceptable speed through the 1990s and 2000s. Should have build twice as many by now. The same applies to a few unfinished subs and unfinished or greatly delayed small surface combatants, like the Pr.11661, Pr.11540, Pr.12441 etc. Keep as many of the modern warships operational or at least reasonably well preserved rather than let them rot, especially Kirovs, Slavas, DDGs, Typhoons, Oscars, Akulas etc. and slowly but surely modernize them.
If they could somehow finish/get Ulyanovsk as well, that would be frigging awesome.
For the air force, the new priorities were Su-35(27M) and Su-34, if nothing else do everything possible to get a regiment or two of each in the 1990s and 2000s, to keep the industry going. Order some extra Su-33s for the Varyag. Also, piggyback on the export models Su-30MK and Su-30MKI and build some for VVS as well. Most of this actually happend in OTL, but 10 years too late. It needs to happen from the start of the 2000s. In an ideal world, the MiG-29M, MiG-31M and Yak-41 should have been built too, but perhaps this would be too much. On the other hand in the 2010s there was serious talk of restating MiG-31 production, so perhaps MiG-31M production should be started even in relatively small numbers just to have the production line available in the 2010s.
Start the MiG-29SMT and MiG-31BM modernization programs in the early 2000s, and for these and other modern/modernized planes such as Su-27SM (of which more should be upgraded), buy new R-77, R-37 and R-74 missiles.
Keep the Tu-160 production going, even at a slow rate, again to keep the production line ticking over and available in the 2010s.
And even if not series produced, give a bit of cash to Mikoyan to fly the MFI by say 1996, at least aviation buffs would get to see it flying at some MAKS airshows.
Essentially all this is to bridge the gap between the late 1990s and late 2000s when almost no new aircraft were bought and only a handful were modernized. Just having the industry build and modernize say 50 aircraft every year would keep it ticking over and relatively healthy. Then we get to the start of the OTL rejuvenation program, which ITTL should also be somewhat increased and hover at not less than 100 new and modernized aircraft every year, including some love for Mikoyan, get some new MiG-29Ms as well as new MiG-31Ms a proposed above.
Sell everything to everyone with cash! Be it China, Iran or whoever else, everything goes including Tu-22Ms for China, MiG-31 for Iran etc.
All this though requires at a minimum no Yeltsin drunkard corrupt that destroyed the economy and military, either never getting in charge or preferably ran over by a tank or something in 1993. Or perhaps a surviving USSR in the form proposed in 1991. Or perhaps the hardline communist coup succeeds in 1991. Whichever POD the OP prefers.
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I think one of their priorities would not necessary be what type or how modern the aircraft is, just that the 4 big companies have enough orders to keep them afloat until the economy improves. Mikoyan, Sukhoi, Yakovlev and Tupolev. And it should also make sense monetarily, without dozen of different developments for one company and zero for the other, so, MiG 29M (9.15) entering production as the cheapest fighter aircraft that could touch upon the performance of the Su-27? No further Su-27 production until a major improvement is achieved to warrant its introduction? Or focus more on the export market and ride any success from there until the 2000s? YAK 141 is probably a must to keep the company alive. Don't think Tupolev really needs the Tu-160 production going, they already cornered the civilian airliner market, perhaps rather in this case just maintain the other military Tupolev aircrafts until the economy improves. (Don't really see much point in a bomber when the Su-24, Su-25 and Tu-22 are doing the job well enough in large enough numbers, requiring just modernization packages)
Perhaps with more focus on modernization and at a smaller scale, they could force their microelectronics industry to produce higher performing equipment, maybe?
RamscoopRaider
Donor
Pare down the navy, 14 SSBN, all Delta types (others old, Typhoons while new are very expensive), 20 SSN (Akulas and newest Sierra and Victors), kill the SSGN we aren't planning on fighting outside the near abroad and they aren't meant for that, 16 or 20 Kilos for local defense. Scrap/Sell the Kirovs and Slavas, expensive, crew intensive and unneeded for the near abroad operations we might do. Pare down to 30 or so destroyers and frigates, plus needed number of ASW/patrol corvettes. Get rid of the single purposes missile corvettes/boats. Sell the oldest amphibs, but keep most of them, would be useful for near abroad. Keep Kuz just to keep carrier skills intact, sell Kievs. Keep the patrol vessels, icebreakers etc.
Get rid of the Tu-22 and Tu-160 bombers, expensive maintenance hogs and we aren't going to be bombing anyone who can shoot back or fighting NATO. Keep the Tu-95's for maritime patrol, cruise missile carrying and bombing people without AA. Ditch all the interceptors but the Mig 31, all fighters older than Mig 29/Su-27, sell some of those for hard currency. Ditch the Mig 27, Su-17, half of the Su-24 and Su-25. Only keep the Il-78 tankers, and the newest 25% of transport aircraft
The T-54/55, T-62 and T-64 should not be in service in 2000 and the T-10 in 1996, drop them faster and keep the tank force at just big enough to fight a pair of regional contingencies. Get rid of the towed AT guns ASAP. Get rid of the older SAMs and reduce the number of modern ones in the TOE, we aren't planning to fight NATO so don't need lots of AA in the short term. Similarly cut the number of ATGM carriers in the TOE
Strategic Rocket Force, try to standardize on a single type of ICBM, Topol series, don't need more than say 200. Cut the ABM system, it only protects Moscow anyways
Get rid of the Tu-22 and Tu-160 bombers, expensive maintenance hogs and we aren't going to be bombing anyone who can shoot back or fighting NATO. Keep the Tu-95's for maritime patrol, cruise missile carrying and bombing people without AA. Ditch all the interceptors but the Mig 31, all fighters older than Mig 29/Su-27, sell some of those for hard currency. Ditch the Mig 27, Su-17, half of the Su-24 and Su-25. Only keep the Il-78 tankers, and the newest 25% of transport aircraft
The T-54/55, T-62 and T-64 should not be in service in 2000 and the T-10 in 1996, drop them faster and keep the tank force at just big enough to fight a pair of regional contingencies. Get rid of the towed AT guns ASAP. Get rid of the older SAMs and reduce the number of modern ones in the TOE, we aren't planning to fight NATO so don't need lots of AA in the short term. Similarly cut the number of ATGM carriers in the TOE
Strategic Rocket Force, try to standardize on a single type of ICBM, Topol series, don't need more than say 200. Cut the ABM system, it only protects Moscow anyways
Band in China
Banned
My bad, I meant the nuclear ones.
That's part of it, stop maintaining older stocks, cut the VVS more drastically. They aren't going to win a full-scale war with NATO, build it for the purpose of bullying the CSTO and overseas power projection instead. Scale is necessary for anything, even if its mostly for China.
Agreed, factories and planes that are actually usable is better than any self-proclaimed "superplane" that "outflies" the best of America.
Will only refer to countries that would have been very interested in getting russian planes/ships, but didn't due to politics (ie Yeltsin kowtowing to the west), and/or while getting some russian weapons, didn't got everything they might have wanted. Also not listing things like SAMs and army weapons that are not part of the OP though they were definitely interested in those too. Same with helicopters of all kinds. Timewise i'm mostly refering to the 1990s and early 2000s.
China MiG-31, Su-27M, Tu-22M, Il-78, A-50, even Tu-95/142 and i'm sure would have been very interested in nuclear subs and even Tu-160s.
Iran more MiG-29, MiG-31, Tu-22M, A-50, Su-24, more Kilos, some frigates etc., later on things like Su-30.
Syria more MiG-29, MiG-31, Su-27, maybe some missile boats etc.
Libya anything they could have gotten their hands on from the above either new or second hand, presumably MiG-29, MiG-31, Su-30, more Su-24 etc.
Iraq again anything they could have gotten their hands on to replace the 1991 war losses, probably mostly second hand MiG-23, 25, 29, Su-24, Su-17, MiG-27 etc.
DPRK same as above, second hand MiG-23, 25, 29, Su-17 etc., maybe a few frigates (iirc they got a Krivak for scrap), some older subs etc.
Yugoslavia some more MiG-29s and even Su-27 if they could get them.
Cuba more MiG-29s.
Afghanistan's anti-mujahideen government could have used some second hand Su-25, 17, MiG-27 etc. to perhaps prevent the islamist take-over (but they need a lot more support from Russia than just planes)
I think that’s the key Russia or even USSR IMHO should have recognized by the early 1980s that there is simply no point in competing with NATO and United States and barring their nukes their military power should be a distant 2nd after USA
The situation is similar to that elderly couple who refuses to downsize the big house until one of them breaks a hip. They are behind payments and they have to sell their house and cash out their retirement at the worst possible time.
There are almost 900 relatively recently built mig 23s as well
Ofcourse by 2000s they are hopelessly obsolete however in the 1990s a lot of air forces still had the F16A , F4 , F5Es and mirage III/V in service , the mig23ML/MLD/P for them is a formidable opponent
Also 350 MiG-25PD is by no means an outdated aircraft in 1991 , short of F-15 nothing else can kill it
And in 1991 only Japan Israel and KSA had the F-15
Ofcourse by 2000s they are hopelessly obsolete however in the 1990s a lot of air forces still had the F16A , F4 , F5Es and mirage III/V in service , the mig23ML/MLD/P for them is a formidable opponent
Also 350 MiG-25PD is by no means an outdated aircraft in 1991 , short of F-15 nothing else can kill it
And in 1991 only Japan Israel and KSA had the F-15
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With some minor modifications can their single purpose naval vessels be made useful for third world multi role missions ?
Like Mirka , petya , krivaks , Pauk and Grishas
Keep a bare minimum of them for protection of their harbors for the rest can easily be sold
There are 17 kresta II / Kara can they be modified in more multi roll ship for the Soviet Navy or just better to sell them? As mentioned above maybe too expensive for smaller navies
SSGN like Oscars and Charlie’s should be kept but the older echo and juliett can be scrapped
Keep the victor III / Akulas and sierras
Scrap or sell the rest
They have 18 kilos I’d say keep 10 of them for domestic use. They’re very versatile, however, sell the tangos even if to NK or china
Is there a way to turn the old SSGN missiles into shore based mobile AshM batteries? Great for export market
Sell all the OSA boats but keep the nanuchkas ? Sell the tarantuls they might be more modern, but there is no money to equip them all with Moskits
Only keep the SS-25 for ICBM and sell all the SRBM SS-21
Like Mirka , petya , krivaks , Pauk and Grishas
Keep a bare minimum of them for protection of their harbors for the rest can easily be sold
There are 17 kresta II / Kara can they be modified in more multi roll ship for the Soviet Navy or just better to sell them? As mentioned above maybe too expensive for smaller navies
SSGN like Oscars and Charlie’s should be kept but the older echo and juliett can be scrapped
Keep the victor III / Akulas and sierras
Scrap or sell the rest
They have 18 kilos I’d say keep 10 of them for domestic use. They’re very versatile, however, sell the tangos even if to NK or china
Is there a way to turn the old SSGN missiles into shore based mobile AshM batteries? Great for export market
Sell all the OSA boats but keep the nanuchkas ? Sell the tarantuls they might be more modern, but there is no money to equip them all with Moskits
Only keep the SS-25 for ICBM and sell all the SRBM SS-21
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Another thought that I had which might be slightly off-topic, but one way Russians can increase financing of their military with western help is to take a decidedly anti-China stance
After the fall of communism in Europe, naturally, the biggest enemy of western democracies would be China particularly after the Tiannamen incident and the tensions with Taiwan
If the Russians give their understanding to NATO that they can help contain China for them, provided they allow a core of modernized Russian military to be maintained.
After the fall of communism in Europe, naturally, the biggest enemy of western democracies would be China particularly after the Tiannamen incident and the tensions with Taiwan
If the Russians give their understanding to NATO that they can help contain China for them, provided they allow a core of modernized Russian military to be maintained.
Nobody was interested. The Russians offered a major upgrade of the MiG-23 in the 90s and there was no interest at all. If they wanted Russian aircraft, they wanted Su-27s or MiG-29s.
Finland? The country that IOTL couldn't go Western-aligned fast enough?